Bücher von Burhan Ahmad

We intend to highlight fragility of high altitude environments that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The high peaks of the Hindukush and Himalayas are a vast storehouse of water in frozen form, with the world¿s greatest concentration of ice outside the polar region. This ¿third pole¿ helps to provide the water that 1.3 billion people depend on for survival, along with the annual monsoon, which is also impacted by climate change.

Pakistan is an agricultural country which has nearly 47% of its society attached to this sector. Impacts of climate change induce serious threats to the agrarian economy of Pakistan. Food security is now negatively impacted through abrupt temperature variations in the region. In particular, the Punjab province based farmers are majorly affected whose sole revenue is dependent upon crop production in arid lands. Although, to some crops the increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) contributes positively, yet the overall measure of pessimistic repercussion of temperature overthrows the appreciative response of GHGs in the region. Using recently published reanalysis dataset viz. Agriculture Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA), the present study has made use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) to evaluate changes in mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the two basic climate variables (temperature and precipitation) on seasonal basis.

This research explores observed, simulated, and projected extreme climate indices from a selection of different GCMs from CMIP5 ensemble for Pakistan at province level. The extreme indices for observed, simulated and projected climate are found and analysed on provincial basis over the country. Pakistan has been facing shortages in both the power and water sector which are the lifelines of the country. Significant increases in the maximum and minimum temperatures over the country may affect such sectors drastically. Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains may cause frequent and intense floods and droughts in the region. Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, may lead to reduced agricultural productivity. This report shall bring added value to all stakeholders and policy makers in determining the hazards that extreme climate has brought in the past and may bring in the near future.