Bücher von Gerd Gigerenzer

Jeder kann lernen, mit Risiken und Ungewissheiten klug umzugehenCorona, Rinderwahnsinn, Fukushima, Finanzkrise - angesichts solcher weltumspannenden Katastrophen scheint nur eines ist gewiss: Wir leben in einer Welt der Ungewissheit und des Risikos. Trotzdem reagieren wir auf Risiken häufig irrational und können gefühlte Gefahren nicht von Dingen unterscheiden, die uns wirklich gefährlich werden können. Der renommierte Psychologe Gerd Gigerenzer zeigt an vielen Beispielen, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert und warum uns Statistiken und Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden, oft in die Irre führen. Sein Bestseller beweist: Wissen ist das wirksamste Mittel gegen Angst. Statt nach Sicherheiten zu suchen, die es nicht gibt, sollte jeder von uns lernen, trotz der Ungewissheiten, die das Leben für uns bereit hält, kluge Entscheidungen zu treffen.

How eliminating "risk illiteracy" among doctors and patients will lead to better health care decision making.

The Empire of Chance tells how quantitative ideas of chance transformed the natural and social sciences, as well as daily life over the last three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact in biology, physics and psychology. Themes recur - determinism, inference, causality, free will, evidence, the shifting meaning of probability - but in dramatically different disciplinary and historical contexts. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centres on how these technical innovations remade our conceptions of nature, mind and society. Written by an interdisciplinary team of historians and philosophers, this readable, lucid account keeps technical material to an absolute minimum. It is aimed not only at specialists in the history and philosophy of science, but also at the general reader and scholars in other disciplines.

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to begenerally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in "small worlds " where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate thancomplex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a "revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality. "By providing a fresh look at how the mind works as well as the nature of rationality, the simple heuristics program has stimulated a large body of research, led to fascinating applications in diverse fields from law to medicine to business to sports, and instigated controversial debates in psychology, philosophy, and economics. In a single volume, the present reader compiles key articles that have been published in journals across many disciplines. These articles present theory, real-worldapplications, and a sample of the large number of existing experimental studies that provide evidence for people''s adaptive use of heuristics.