Bücher von Jerzy Witold Wi¿niewski

Forecasting from multi-equation models has very rarely been the focus in econometric literature. In response, this book presents a range of methodologies to approach this complex field and offers readers essential information on forecasting from multi-equation econometric micromodels.In the twentieth century, significant interest in econometric macromodels emerged. These multi-equation models are mostly systems of interdependent equations, most often used to describe the national economies of various countries. The book analyzes econometric forecasting procedures and illustrates them with empirical examples that are based on real economic (mostly business-derived) data. The procedure of forecast building from systems of interdependent equations is presented for two categories of econometric models: models with a feedback effect and models with closed-loop links between interdependent variables. The forecasts obtained via this technique are compared with the results derived from reduced-form equations of the respective econometric model. The author also generalizes the rules of the reduced-recursive (helical, iterative) procedure application, against the backdrop of the proposed method of forecast building from reduced-form equations of systems of interdependent equations. Given its scope, the book will appeal not only to PhD students and researchers, but also undergraduate students and academics in general.

The need emerged to construct forecasts for empirical systems of interdependent equations in econometric micromodels. As such, it became necessary to search for solutions, which provide convergent forecasts from structural-form equations of such a system. The procedure presented in the third and fourth chapters of this monograph, called a reduced-recursive procedure or a snail procedure can serve as a proposal for such a solution. It leads to convergent forecasts, which are characterized by the fact that they ¿mesh¿, as part of a feedback or in a cycle of closed relations. Therefore, it is necessary to find new prognostic solutions for systems of interdependent equations within the scope of econometric micromodels. Consideration of various proposals, and in particular obtaining a large number of microeconomic forecasts, will enable rational generalizations. This will foster the use of such forecasts to support the management in business entities. Good forecasting solutions in this field may trigger the demand for forecasting work in enterprises of all sizes. This, in turn, will support the further development of research on forecasting from systems of interdependent equations.

The purpose of this book is to present research methods, suitable for qualitative phenomena, with the examples of their applications. This book presents: simple methods of measurement of the quality features based on the weak Stevens scales; common errors in the application of the statistical methods for the analysis of the results of the measurement in ordinal scale which were not presented in any book before; indicates the risk of the well-known Spearman¿s correlation coefficient; new coefficient of association of quality features created and proven by the author¿s book which is equivalent to Pearson¿s correlation coefficient (this coefficient of association presented in the book can be tested for instance by simple t-Student test); the possibilities of the application of the association coefficient which can be used to management decision in the enterprise; the possibilities of application of the linear probability function in the enterprise with advantages of its application, together with the use of the Aitken method, which gives more precise estimates of the parameters against the background of OLS; the econometric models of limited dependent variables.

Celem tej ksi¿¿ki jest przedstawienie metod badawczych, odpowiednich dla zjawisk jako¿ciowych, wraz z przyk¿adami ich zastosowä. Ksi¿¿ka ta przedstawia: proste metody pomiaru cech jako¿ciowych oparte na s¿abych skalach Stevensa; cz¿ste b¿¿dy w zastosowaniu metod statystycznych do analizy wyników pomiaru w skali porz¿dkowej, które nie by¿y wcze¿niej prezentowane w ¿adnej ksi¿¿ce; wskazuje na ryzyko znanego wspó¿czynnika korelacji Spearmana; nowy wspó¿czynnik asocjacji cech jako¿ciowych stworzony i potwierdzony przez ksi¿¿k¿ autorsk¿, równowäny wspó¿czynnikowi korelacji Pearsona (ten wspó¿czynnik asocjacji przedstawiony w ksi¿¿ce mo¿e by¿ testowany np. za pomoc¿ prostego testu t-Studenta); mo¿liwo¿ci zastosowania wspó¿czynnika asocjacji, który mo¿e by¿ wykorzystany do podejmowania decyzji zarz¿dczych w przedsi¿biorstwie; mo¿liwo¿ci zastosowania funkcji liniowego prawdopodobie¿stwa w przedsi¿biorstwie wraz z zaletami jej zastosowania, wraz z wykorzystaniem metody Aitken, która daje dok¿adniejsze oszacowania parametrów na tle OLS; ekonometryczne modele ograniczonych zmiennych zale¿nych.