Bücher von Mauro F. Guillen

AN INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLERWall Street Journal BestsellerA Porchlight Book BestsellerFinancial Times Best Books of 2020Yahoo Finance Favorite Business Books of 2020 JP Morgan NextList 2021 selection"e;Bold, provocative...illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising."e; -ADAM GRANTThe world is changing drastically before our eyes-will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends, including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes. Once upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. Babies were plentiful, workers outnumbered retirees, and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars. Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well. Printed money was legal tender for all debts, public and private. We grew up learning how to "e;play the game,"e; and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job, started a family, saw our children grow up, and went into retirement with our finances secure.That world-and those rules-are over.By 2030, a new reality will take hold, and before you know it:- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men- There will be more robots than workers- There will be more computers than human brains- There will be more currencies than countriesAll these trends, currently underway, will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture, the economy, and the world.According to Mauro F. Guillen, the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway-and their impacts-is to think laterally. That is, using "e;peripheral vision,"e; or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view. Rather than focusing on a single trend-climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes, for example-Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point-2030-that will be, for better or worse, the point of no return.2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of "e;lateral thinking,"e; thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences.

Die Zukunft ist näher als wir denken. Und sie kann sehr sicher vorausgesagt werden: Dieses Buch beschreibt, wie wir 2030 leben und arbeiten werden. Mehr Rentner als Kindergartenkinder, eine größere Mittelklasse in Subsahara-Afrika und Asien als in Europa und den USA, Klimawandel und KI, Kryptowährungen als Hauptzahlungsmittel ... Eins ist klar: Unser Leben wird 2030 ganz anders aussehen. Die globalen Machtzentren werden sich ebenso verschoben haben wie unsere eigene Gesellschaft eine andere sein wird. So wird es aller Voraussicht nach 2030 erstmals mehr vermögende Frauen als Männer geben. Leicht verständlich und zugleich wissenschaftlich fundiert erzählt der renommierte Trendforscher Mauro Guillén, was auf uns zukommt - und wie wir uns darauf einstellen können.

This book challenges the widely accepted notion that globalization encourages economic convergence--and, by extension, cultural homogenization--across national borders. A systematic comparison of organizational change in Argentina, South Korea, and Spain since 1950 finds that global competition forces countries to exploit their distinctive strengths, resulting in unique development trajectories. Analyzing the social, political, and economic conditions underpinning the rise of various organizational forms, Guillen shows that business groups, small enterprises, and foreign multinationals play different economic roles depending on a country's path to development. Business groups thrive when there is foreign-trade and investment protectionism and are best suited to undertake large-scale, capital-intensive activities such as automobile assembly and construction. Their growth and diversification come at the expense of smaller firms and foreign multinationals. In contrast, small and medium enterprises are best fitted to compete in knowledge-intensive activities such as component manufacturing and branded consumer goods. They prosper in the absence of restrictions on export-oriented multinationals. The book ends on an optimistic note by presenting evidence that it is possible--though not easy--for countries to break through the glass ceiling separating poor from rich. It concludes that globalization encourages economic diversity and that democracy is the form of government best suited to deal with globalization's contingencies. Against those who contend that the transition to markets must come before the transition to ballots, Guillen argues that democratization can and should precede economic modernization. This is applied economic sociology at its best--broad, topical, full of interesting political implications, and critical of the conventional wisdom.

The dream of scientific management was a rationalized machine world where life would approach the perfection of an assembly line. Since its early twentieth-century peak, this dream has come to seem a dehumanizing nightmare. This book tells the story of the emergence of modernist architecture as a romance with the ideas of scientific management.

In 2004, Spain's Banco Santander purchased Britain's Abbey National Bank in a deal valued at fifteen billion dollars--an acquisition that made Santander one of the ten largest financial institutions in the world. Here, Mauro Guillen and Adrian Tschoegl tackle the question of how this once-sleepy, family-run provincial bank in a developing economy transformed itself into a financial-services group with more than sixty-six million customers on three continents. Founded 150 years ago in the Spanish port city of the same name, Santander is the only large bank in the world where three successive generations of one family have led top management and the board of directors. But Santander is fully modern. Drawing on rich data and in-depth interviews with family members and managers, Guillen and Tschoegl reveal how strategic decisions by the family and complex political, social, technological, and economic forces drove Santander's unprecedented rise to global prominence. The authors place the bank in this competitive milieu, comparing it with its rivals in Europe and America, and showing how Santander, faced with growing competition in Spain and Europe, sought growth opportunities in Latin America and elsewhere. They also address the complexities of managerial succession and family leadership, and weigh the implications of Santander's stellar rise for the consolidation of European banking. Building a Global Bank tells the fascinating story behind this powerful corporation's remarkable transformation--and of the family behind it.