Bücher von Morteza Kohansal

An increasing reliance on models, regulatory challenges, and talentscarcity is driving banks toward a model risk management organizationthat is both more effective and value-centric.The number of models is rising dramatically¿10 to 25 percent annually at largeinstitutions¿as banks utilize models for an ever-widening scope of decision making.More complex models are being created with advanced-analytics techniques, such asmachine learning, to achieve higher performance standards. A typical large bank can nowexpect the number of models included within its model risk management (MRM) frameworkto continue to increase substantially.Among the model types that are proliferating are those designed to meet regulatoryrequirements, such as capital provisioning and stress testing. But importantly, many of thenew models are designed to achieve business needs, including pricing, strategic planning,and asset-liquidity management. Big data and advanced analytics are opening new areas formore sophisticated models¿such as customer relationship management or anti-moneylaundering and fraud detection.

Asia is increasingly the center of the world economy. By 2040, the region couldaccount for more than half of global GDP and about 40 percent of global consumption.Global cross-border flows are shifting towards Asia on seven of eight dimensions, and theregion¿s growth is becoming more broad-based and sustainable as its constituent economiesincreasingly integrate with each other.This is a diverse region, but its different parts have complementary characteristics, andpowerful networks are developing within Asia. Patterns of globalization are shifting, and theseshifts are occurring faster in Asia than elsewhere, suggesting that more than any other region,Asia could shape the way globalization unfolds in the years to come.This new paper builds on the McKinsey Global Institute¿s research on globalization in January2019 by examining Asiäs rise on eight dimensions incorporating 16 types of flow, looking at theincreasing integration of the economies of the region, and highlighting the development ofthree powerful new Asian networks: industrialization, innovation, and culture and mobility, and the rising cities that are pivotal components of those networks.

Emerging economies have accounted for almost two-thirds of the world¿s GDP growth and more than half of new consumption over the past 15 years. Yet economic performance among individual countries varies substantially. In Outperformers: High-growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them, the McKinsey Global Institute looks at the long-term track record of 71developing economies to identify the outperformers¿and finds two key factors that helpexplain their outperformance: a pro-growth policy agenda of productivity, income, and demandthat has driven exceptional economic growth, and the underappreciated but nonethelessstandout role that large companies have played in driving that growth. 1. Eighteen of 71 countries outperformed their peers and global benchmarks.2. A pro-growth agenda of productivity, income, and demand has driven outperformance.3. The role of productive companies is a key characteristic of outperforming economies.4. Changing times spell potential new opportunities for emerging economies.5. The global economy could receive an $11 trillion boost if all emerging economies emulateoutperformers.

A company has only one peerless role: chief executive officer. It¿s the most powerful and sought-after title in business, more exciting, rewarding, and influential than any other. What the CEO controls¿the company¿s biggest moves¿accounts for 45 percent of a company¿s performance. Despite the luster of the role, serving as a CEO can be all-consuming, lonely, and stressful. Just three in five newly appointed CEOs live up to performance expectations in their first 18 months on the job. The high standards and broad expectations of directors, shareholders, customers, and employees create an environment of relentless scrutiny in which one move can dramatically make or derail an accomplished career.For all the scrutiny of the CEO¿s role, though, little is solidly understood about what CEOs really do to excel. McKinsey¿s longtime leader, Marvin Bower, considered the CEO¿s job so specialized that he felt executives could prepare for the post only by holding it. Many of the CEOs we¿ve worked with have expressed similar views. In their experience, even asking other CEOs how to approach the job doesn¿t help, because suggestions vary greatly once they go.....

The age of automation , and on the near horizon, artificial intelligence (AI)technologies offer new job opportunities and avenues for economic advancement, but women face new challenges overlaid on long-established ones. Between 40 million and 160million women globally may need to transition between occupations by 2030, often into higher-skilled roles. To weather this disruption, women (and men) need to be skilled, mobile,and tech-savvy, but women face pervasive barriers on each, and will need targeted support to move forward in the world of work. The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation, finds that if women make these transitions, they could be on the path to more productive, better-paid work. If they cannot, they could face a growing wage gap or be left further behind when progress toward gender parity in work is already slow .This new research explores potential patterns in ¿jobs lost¿ (jobs displaced by automation),¿jobs gained¿ (job creation driven by economic growth, investment, demographic changes,and technological innovation), and ¿jobs changed¿ (jobs whose activities and skill requirements change from partial automation) for women by exploring.

The spectrum of customers served by any government agency presents a puzzle of personal profiles, each with needs that evolve during life journeys that span years, career changes, and shifting economic, social, and family circumstances. Across the public sector, leaders increasingly recognize the rationale for improving customer experience ¿enhanced ability to achieve agency missions, outperformance in meeting budget goals, and more engaged employees. Yet we find many governmentleaders stumbling as they address how to unearth poor customer experiences, improve them, and piece together a complete picture of their customers and the elements of a culture to sustain improvement over time.

Few business leaders would dispute the fact that sales teams must evolve. They are already investing billions of dollars in sales technology and training in response to automation and artificial intelligence, which are making ever deeper inroads into the sales function. The trouble is that these investments aren¿t paying off. We speak with many sales leaders who are frustrated with the lack of clarity on the ROI of their investments and surprised when their new ¿shiny toys¿ (such as a new lead-generating tool) fail to deliver meaningful performance improvement. The truth is that driving sales growth today requires fundamentally different ways of working as well as outstanding execution across large, decentralized sales teams and channel partners. While many sales leaders accept this reality in principle, they don¿t put sufficient energy or focus into driving that level of change. Advances in digital and analytics, however, mean that sales leaders can now drive and scale meaningful changes that pay off today and tomorrow.

A successful customer experience strategy starts with an aspiration centered on what matters to customers and empowering frontline workers to deliver. Almost every successful company recognizes that it is in the customer-experience business. Organizations committed to this principle are as divers as the online retail giant Amazon; The Walt Disney Company, from its earliest days operating in a small California studio; and the US Air Force, which uses an exotic B2B-like interface to provide close air support for ground troops under fire. Conversely company that are not attuned to a customer-driven marketplace are remarkably easy to spot. Consider the traditional US taxi industry, which is facing significant new competition from the liked of Lyft and Uber. Customer-service standouts clearly understand that this is central to their success as businesses.

Asia is currently in the midst of a boom in digital and technological innovation. Theemergence of digital giants¿including Chinäs Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu; Japan¿sRakuten and SoftBank; South East Asiäs Grab and Go-Jek; and Indiäs Paytm¿is clearevidence of the trend. Fast-moving and aggressive, these companies and others are thrivingbecause they have access to capital and because Asian consumers are especially receptiveto new mobile and internet technologies.Across Asia, the digital boom is a significant challenge for traditional incumbents. Faced withthe pressure to digitize and suffering from stagnant performance and slow valuation growth,many incumbents are seeking opportunities to transform and leapfrog. This has led them toembrace ecosystems , collaborating with diverse organizations that provide digitallyaccessed, multi-industry solutions based on emerging technologies.Ecosystems present several clear strategic benefits in an environment where traditionalbanks are losing growth momentum:

Every year, at insurance companies around the world, strategic planning processes unfold. They aspire to set bold new direction but frequently yield incrementalism and strategic inertiäin insurance, and in just about every other industry. In fact, research by our colleagues shows that economy-wide, in multidivision companies, the amount of capital allocated to each business unit from one year to the next is nearly identical; the mean correlation is .92.There are myriad reasons for this, ranging from risk aversion to corporate politics to the Quixotic quest for the perfect strategy that does not exist. And there¿s also an empirically substantiated way out: recognize that strategy is about playing the odds. Not every decision is going to result in a win¿but companies that increase their batting average, so to speak, are more likely to succeed. Strategy is probabilistic, not deterministic. That, too, is the case in every industry, according to a multiyear research effort by our colleagues that culminated in the 2018 publication of Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick. Strategy is probabilistic, not deterministic.

Particularly since the end of the Cold War, US armed forces have addressed a wide range of security concerns, some of which fall into categories-for noncombatinstance, helping to manage the emerging effects of the Ebola virus in Liberia, or assisting inrescue and recovery efforts after hurricane in the Caribbean and Puerto Rico.The presenters explored the following: the continued complexities of the hard and soft tasks the US military is now being charged with, and how to find the balance between both in a resource- and time-constrained environment conditions for peace and the importance of negotiation skills among today¿s military leaders on the ground the navy of the future and what it might look like technological changes in today¿s military the opportunities emerging from industry¿military partnerships.Make no mistake, the speakers concluded, the next-generation military is already here: IoT devices, sensors, and other connectivity tools are affecting the way military strategies are developed, communicated, and, in some cases, even executed. Diplomatic considerations are increasingly present at a tactical level on the battlefield.

As businesses face evolving challenges, four aspects of leadership willbecome dramatically more important: insight, integrity, courage, and agility.It may be that advancing technology plays the most visible role in shapingmanufacturing progress in the years ahead. But we believe that what will matter at least as much for manufacturing¿s future is something that¿s much less visible, even though it has long been the bedrock of performance: effective leadership. How individual leaders inspire and influence others will become a key differentiator between organizations that thrive and those that do not.In our experience transforming large, complex organizations at scale, the bulk of the work is usually in creating operational and managerial solutions. Yet we also know that nothing will happen, let alone sustain itself over time, without effective leadership. Indeed, extensive¿and remarkably quantitative¿research confirms that there are roughly 20 fundamental components of leadership that correlate closely to organizational performance.