Bücher von Niklas Humann

Seminar paper from the year 2024 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This paper seeks to describe and analyze the intricacies of monetary policy transmission in the Eurozone by employing a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. In particular, this paper investigates how policy-induced shocks to the main refinancing operations (MRO) rate reverberate through key macroeconomic variables, including (real) GDP growth, inflation (measured by the HICP), unemployment, the money supply (M3), and the nominal effective exchange rate. A particular focus on exploring these dynamics is set on carefully addressing the inherent challenges of econometric modeling, including variable selection, model specification (including an overview of various identifying restrictions for the SVAR model), and checking for robustness.

Seminar paper from the year 2022 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This paper analyses how far the events of 1720 actually constituted a bubble. While there is an ongoing discussion of what a "bubble" actually is, this study will sidestep much of the formal discussion and focus more on presenting stylised facts that any theory would need to be able to explain. Consequently, this paper will follow Quinn and Turner (2020) in defining a "bubble" as having two parts: a period of sharply increasing prices followed by a period of sharply decreasing prices. This definition has the advantage of not hinging on the cause of the bubble itself but focusing on the actual price developments (more on that later). While these price increases may carry the innuendo of not being justified by ¿fundamentals¿, the definition does not explicitly require this.From the first international collapse of financial markets in the early 18th century to the more recent Great Financial Crisis, financial bubbles have been the source of massive economic gains as well as losses and bear an unrivalled potential to disrupt real economic activity. Consequently, they are often controversially discussed ¿ both in the general public, as well as in academic literature. With every new supposed bubble episode, comparisons to past crises are drawn. While much of their original context got lost to the history books, a sense of awe regarding the madness that the participants seem to have suffered from remains. Even after 300 years, the events surrounding the South Sea Bubble of 1720 are still part of a controversial debate about the very nature of financial markets and the investors participating in them. As pointed out by Paul (2011), the South Sea Bubble "has become a byword for folly and fraud" and a landmark in the economic history of Europe. A company that survived for over one and a half centuries is today mostly remembered for what happened to it in less than a year. As one of the most famous crashes in history, its name is often invoked in debates of more recent bubbles ¿ often with little understanding of the actual events.

Seminar paper from the year 2023 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1.0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This paper sets out to forecast the US monthly inflation rate using various statistical models and the FRED-MD database, which contains monthly observations on 127 macroeconomic variables from 1959 to 2022. Forecasting (expected) inflation rates is essential for the plans of private individuals and firms as well as governments¿ and central banks¿ policy decisions. In particular, this paper tests the accuracy of various univariate time series models, time series models with exogenous regressors, and Machine Learning models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment. An AR(1) model will serve as the benchmark to which the performance of the other models is compared. The exogenous regressors are selected by theory and by correlation with the target variable. Finally, the paper considers how a combination of models can increase the accuracy of their forecasts.

Seminar paper from the year 2023 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1,3, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This paper explores Bitcoin¿s potential as an alternative to a central bank-backed currency by analysing El Salvador¿s recent adoption of it as a legal tender. Such monetary experiments are rare, providing researchers with a unique possibility to identify the macroeconomic effects of monetary regime changes. I find that a medium of exchange is not simply created by a government adopting a new legal tender but by the broad acceptance of it by the populace, which occurs due to substantial relative benefits of the new currency to the status quo. In particular, I am going to argue that El Salvador¿s Bitcoin experiment failed, because the people of El Salvador did not perceive the need for a new currency and because Bitcoin does not fulfil any of the traditional functions of a currency.

Bachelor Thesis from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: While it is fair to say that almost all countries are better off than they were 70 years ago, this wealth seems to be distributed ever more unequally. One of the most significant questions ¿ not just in economics, but social sciences in general ¿ is how these differences came to be and what can be done to reduce them. Why do some countries thrive while others perish? What determines their growth?This thesis explores one aspect of economic growth: the importance of a well developed, that is deep, accessible, efficient, and stable financial system. The discussion of this finance-growth-nexus can be traced back all the way to Schumpeter (1911) and was more recently revived by King and Levine (1993). Since then, numerous studies have investigated the subject ¿ to this day without reaching a consensus. The objective of this thesis is to not only review some of the empirical and theoretical evidence , but to also replicate and expand on the research with recent data and a novel approach to measuring financial development. To this end, the author has compiled an unbalanced panel of 121 countries over the period from 1960 to 2017, which will serve as a basis for the empirical part of the argumentation

Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Münster, language: English, abstract: This seminar paper reviews the literature on futures markets as well as the recent food crisis and presents an empirical investigation of the influence of (index) speculation on the corn price. My findings are in line with most of the other empirical conclusions that, rather than speculation, factors from the real and monetary economy played a role in the spike of commodity prices.For centuries, corn has been one of the most produced crops in the world, used to feed people, livestock and machines. During the last quarter of the twentieth-century, world food prices declined by more than 50 percent, thereby improving the nourishment of people all over the world. However, this extensive decline also raised calls for protectionist policies, aimed at defending the welfare of commodity producers. Starting in the early 2000s, all classes of commodities have experienced hefty price increases. The price for corn increased by more than 250 percent in roughly three years (2005-2008). The resulting food crisis devastated low-income communities around the globe, with the already large part of their income they spent on food becoming even more substantial, causing hunger and malnutrition. While a variety of explanations for this crisis have been offered, some were quick to blame excessive (index) speculation.