Bücher der Reihe Mathematical Modelling: Theory and Applications

Over the past decade there has been an increasing demand for suitable material in the area of mathematical modelling as applied to science, engineering, business and management. Recent developments in computer technology and related software have provided the necessary tools of increasing power and sophistication which have significant implications for the use and role of mathematical modelling in the above disciplines. In the past, traditional methods have relied heavily on expensive experimentation and the building of scaled models, but now a more flexible and cost effective approach is available through greater use of mathematical modelling and computer simulation. In particular, developments in computer algebra, symbolic manipulation packages and user friendly software packages for large scale problems, all have important implications in both the teaching of mathematical modelling and, more importantly, its use in the solution of real world problems. Many textbooks have been published which cover the art and techniques of modelling as well as specific mathematical modelling techniques in specialist areas within science and business. In most of these books the mathematical material tends to be rather tailor made to fit in with a one or two semester course for teaching students at the undergraduate or postgraduate level, usually the former. This textbook is quite different in that it is intended to build on and enhance students' modelling skills using a combination of case studies and projects.

The complexity of issues requiring rational decision making grows and thus such decisions are becoming more and more difficult, despite advances in methodology and tools for decision support and in other areas of research. Globalization, interlinks between environmental, industrial, social and political issues, and rapid speed of change all contribute to the increase of this complexity. Specialized knowledge about decision-making processes and their support is increasing, but a large spectrum of approaches presented in the literature is typically illustrated only by simple examples. Moreover, the integration of model-based decision support methodologies and tools with specialized model-based knowledge developed for handling real problems in environmental, engineering, industrial, economical, social and political activities is often not satisfactory. Therefore, there is a need to present the state of art of methodology and tools for development of model-based decision support systems, and illustrate this state by applications to various complex real-world decision problems. The monograph reports many years of experience of many researchers, who have not only contributed to the developments in operations research but also succeeded to integrate knowledge and craft of various disciplines into several modern decision support systems which have been applied to actual complex decision-making processes in various fields of policy making. The experience presented in this book will be of value to researchers and practitioners in various fields. The issues discussed in this book gain in importance with the development of the new era of the information society, where information, knowledge, and ways of processing them become a decisive part of human activities. The examples presented in this book illustrate how how various methods and tools of model-based decision support can actually be used for helping modern decision makers that face complex problems. Overview of the contents: The first part of this three-part book presents the methodological background and characteristics of modern decision-making environment, and the value of model-based decision support thus addressing current challenges of decision support. It also provides the methodology of building and analyzing mathematical models that represent underlying physical and economic processes, and that are useful for modern decision makers at various stages of decision making. These methods support not only the analysis of Pareto-efficient solutions that correspond best to decision maker preferences but also allow the use of other modeling concepts like soft constraints, soft simulation, or inverse simulation. The second part describes various types of tools that are used for the development of decision support systems. These include tools for modeling, simulation, optimization, tools supporting choice and user interfaces. The described tools are both standard, commercially available, and nonstandard, public domain or shareware software, which are robust enough to be used also for complex applications. All four environmental applications (regional water quality management, land use planning, cost-effective policies aimed at improving the European air quality, energy planning with environmental implications) presented in the third part of the book rely on many years of cooperation between the authors of the book with several IIASA's projects, and with many researchers from the wide IIASA network of collaborating institutions. All these applications are characterized by an intensive use of model-based decision support. Finally, the appendix contains a short description of some of the tools described in the book that are available from IIASA, free of charge, for research and educational purposes. The experiences reported in this book indicate that the development of DSSs for strategic environmental decision making should be a joint effort involving experts in the subject area, modelers, and decision support experts. For the other experiences discussed in this book, the authors stress the importance of good data bases, and good libraries of tools. One of the most important requirements is a modular structure of a DSS that enhances the reusability of system modules. In such modular structures, user interfaces play an important role. The book shows how modern achievements in mathematical programming and computer sciences may be exploited for supporting decision making, especially about strategic environmental problems. It presents the methodological background of various methods for model-based decision support and reviews methods and tools for model development and analysis. The methods and tools are amply illustrated with extensive applications. Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in the fields of model development and analysis, model-based decision analysis and support, (particularly in the environment, economics, agriculture, engineering, and negotiations areas) and mathematical programming. For understanding of some parts of the text a background in mathematics and operational research is required but several chapters of the book will be of value also for readers without such a background. The monograph is also suitable for use as a text book for courses on advanced (Master and Ph.D.) levels for programs on Operations Research, decision analysis, decision support and various environmental studies (depending on the program different parts of the book may be emphasized).

This book deals with one class of locally coupled neural net works, called Cellular Neural Networks (CNNs). Yang [27,28] as a novel class of information processing systems, which posseses some of the key fea tures of neural networks (NNs) and which has important potential applications in such areas as image processing and pattern reco gnition.

This text, which serves as a general introduction to the area of mathematical modelling, is aimed at advanced undergraduate students in mathematics or closely related disciplines, e.g., students who have some prerequisite knowledge such as one-variable calculus, linear algebra and ordinary differential equations.

It will also appeal to specialists in engineering and management, for example in the electronic industry, discrete parts industry, process industry, automotive and aircraft industry and food industry.

The present book fmds its roots in the International Conference on Methods and Applications of Multiple Criteria Decision Making held in Mons in May 1997.

Standard artificial neural networks are constructed from 'units' (roughly similar to neurons) that transmit their 'activity' (similar to membrane potentials or to mean firing rates) to other units via 'weight factors' (similar to synaptic coupling efficacies).

This work of applied mathematics focuses on the functional study of the nonlinear boundary value problems relating to water flow in porous media, a topic which has not up to now been explored in book form. The volume deals with diffusion type models, emphasizing the mathematical treatment of their nonlinear aspects.

. . . . . . . . . . . . FINANCIAL MATHEMATICS . Compound Interest . MORTALITy . 1 Survival Time . LIFE INSURANCES AND ANNUITIES . Stochastic Cash Flows . Life Insurances . Endowments . Life Annuities . PREMIUMS . Net Premiums . Gross Premiums . RESERVES . Net Premium Reserves . Modified Reserves . 286 ANSWERS TO ODD-NuMBERED PROBLEMS .

After Karl Joereskog's first presentation in 1970, Structural Equation Modelling or SEM has become a main statistical tool in many fields of science.

Standard artificial neural networks are constructed from 'units' (roughly similar to neurons) that transmit their 'activity' (similar to membrane potentials or to mean firing rates) to other units via 'weight factors' (similar to synaptic coupling efficacies).

It will also appeal to specialists in engineering and management, for example in the electronic industry, discrete parts industry, process industry, automotive and aircraft industry and food industry.

Presents important mathematical tools for studying economic models. It covers linear differential equations and linear discrete-time systems; a sketch of the general theory of nonlinear systems and the stability of equilibria; and an introduction to numerical methods for differential equations.

The research field of nonlinear dynamical systems and especially the study of chaotic systems has been hailed as one of the important breaktroughs in science this century. The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive introduction to the application of chaos theory to electronic systems.