Bücher der Reihe Studies in Applied Regional Science

As a result of a contract awarded by the Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Environmental Pro tection Agency, a workshop on the methodology of economic impact analy sis was held at Hueston Woods State Park Lodge in Oxford, Ohio, April 13-15, 1977.

The requirement that industries must abate environmental pollution leads to increased costs of production and, in turn, to higher prices, falling output in those industries, and reduced employment and income in the region where such industries are located.

Thus the statement that is usually made, that the standard results carry over to a world in which there is spatial choice, is too weak and fails to capture the essence oflocation theory. These considerations led to the conclusion that the role of spatial choice and the determinants of such choice would be best analysed by case study.

The decade of the 1970's has seen substantial improvement in our under standing of the determinants of urban spatial patterns. It is typical of western science and technology of the past several centuries that these advances in urban spatial analysis have resulted from the efforts of many individuals.

This process will be examined below at three levels of aggregation: (I) the popu lation distribution as one frequency distribution, (2) the population distribution dis aggregated into a n~ber of size classes, and (3) the individual cities which make up the population distribution.

I am also grateful to Melvin Greenhut, David Houston, Tatsuhiko Kawashima, Asatoshi Maeshiro, William Miernyk, Josephine Olson, Peter Nijkamp and Harry Richardson who read and critically re viewed earlier manuscripts.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the alternative growth paths open to a region under various policies designed to control the growth oftour ism.

This book is the product of research which I undertook for my doc­ toral thesis. The project was started whilst I was at the Free Univer­ sity of Amsterdam, and the State University of Groningen gave me ample opportunity to complete the work. At both universities I was lucky enough to find kind colleagues who were willing to perform my teaching tasks, enabling me to spend much of my time some of on my research. I should like to thank Wietze Boomsma, Kees van den Hoeven and Jan Oosterhaven for their kind help. I was also most encouraged to discover several students at both institutions who were interested in the research topic. This meant that some research could be performed with their co-operation, which proved most stimulating. Harry ter Braak and Henk van Metelen were especially enthusiastic helpers. During the initial stage of research, Fons Bertens did a great deal of meticulous work, with never a com­ plaint. In the final stages, Arend Stemerding helped me greatly. The completed manuscript was read by Nol Merkies and Peter Nijkamp, who had some helpful comments on the contents. Pro­ fessor Nijkamp succeeded in stimulating me during the research by his interest in the project and subsequent edifying discussions. Several persons helped to type the manuscript, but Yvonne van Tuyl took the lion's share, typing a perfect final copy in record time.

The ideas of this book originate from a research group at the Department of Economics in Gothenburg working with the problem of "Relations between Physical and Economic Planning". The research was financed by grants from the Swedish Council for Building Research. Among all the persons, who from time to time were associated to the project group, the author wishes to express his particular thanks to Ph.D. Rune Jungen, Ph.D.Johan L6nnroth and M.A.Lars Andersson. c' This book is also my doctoral dissertation for which professor Ake E. Andersson has acted as supervisor. It has been a privilege for me to have him as my supervisor. I have benefited a great deal from a professional as well as a personal point of view. There are other members of the Department of Economics to whom I am indebted. Professor Harald Dickson was a close reader of my last drafts. The help I got from Ph.D.Lennart Hjalmarsson and Ph.D.Olle Ohlsson has also been indispensable to me. Ph.D.Barbro Atlestam, M.A.G6sta Olavi and Ph.D.Folke Snickars have assisted with calculations and the solution of mathematical pro­ blems. At last the author wishes to thank M. A . Mette Lembring who made the translation from Swedish. Jan Gunnarsson Contents V PREFACE Definition of the problem and results 1. 1.1. Some comments on the structure of systems of centres 1 A brief survey of problems 5 1.2.

This book is written for students and scholars seeking a rather 'unconven tional' approach to the problem of water supply planning. The fresh approach of the empirical analysis should lift the field of urban water resources analysis into using a greater expanse of tools and methods for policy planning.

INTRODUCTION 1 The need for industrial location analysis 2 Concentration on disaggregated manufacturing activity 3 The location of economic activity 5 The factors of location approach 6 Agglomerative economies as location factors 9 Outline of following chapters 11 2.

In addition, I am indebted to the Division of Research and to the Office of Research and Advanced Studies at Indiana University for financial support. I also wish to acknowledge the Bureau of Business and Eco nomic Research at Arizona State University for providing two research assistants, Kevin A.

ROBERTSON Macro-econometric models 16 Problems in constructing regional econometric models 19 The Georgia model 20 Testing the Georgia model 22 Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model 25 An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model 28 Summary 30 3.

This book attempts to show, in a style acceptable to both academics and hurried planning executives, how simple analytic tools may be used to bridge the substantial gap between producing an input-output table and using one. In pursuing this goal, we eschew all discussions of complex programming models, for example, and concentrate on, above all, interpretation of the transactions table itself, on such common tools as multipliers, impact analysis, projections models, and self-sufficiency analysis, and on a few innovations such as income-per-employee indices, development simulators, and market analysis routines. Our primary purpose has been to show how planners, both private and public, can use regional input-output analysis quickly and to their advantage. The Georgia Interindustry Study was sponsored by the Office of Planning and Budget and the Department of Industry and Trade of the State of Georgia; their support is gratefully acknowledged. The fmal study report, of which this book represents a substantial revision, benefited enormously from the support and incisive criticisms of Dr. William W. Nash, then with the Office of Planning and Bud~t; his efforts are warmly appreciated. Many other officials in Georgia government contributed to this study, including: Louis Schneider and Kenneth P. Johnson in the' Office of PlaJ}ning and Budget; James O. Bohanan, James Butler, George Rogers, and H.W. Wiley in the Department of Industry and Trade; Joe Woodall and Corine Cross in the Department of Labor; William M. Nixon in the Department of Audits; and J .B.

This continual decline in the standard of living, coupled with poverty and unemployment, will lead to social and political upheaval in these countries, which affects developed countries. however, the amount of cooperation between countries and the material help from the developed countries are far from satisfactory.

While movement to the traditional amenity areas of Florida and Arizona continues, there has been a dramatic shift away from California, or from metropolitan areas generally, to xv xvi INTRODUCTION the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, upper New England, and even to the Ozarks, Appalachia, and Upper Michigan.

He is a rural development generalist providing liaison between the gover nors and federal officials and performing applied policy research to support improvements in rural development programs and systems for their delivery.

We spent, Bernard and I, many a well-filled hour in discussing the technicalities of the exercise: the consumption and investment functions, with their estimation problems, the treatment of the transportation sector, problems in geometric programming, et de quibusdam aliis.

This continual decline in the standard of living, coupled with poverty and unemployment, will lead to social and political upheaval in these countries, which affects developed countries. however, the amount of cooperation between countries and the material help from the developed countries are far from satisfactory.

This process will be examined below at three levels of aggregation: (I) the popu lation distribution as one frequency distribution, (2) the population distribution dis aggregated into a n~ber of size classes, and (3) the individual cities which make up the population distribution.

The decade of the 1970's has seen substantial improvement in our under standing of the determinants of urban spatial patterns. It is typical of western science and technology of the past several centuries that these advances in urban spatial analysis have resulted from the efforts of many individuals.

The requirement that industries must abate environmental pollution leads to increased costs of production and, in turn, to higher prices, falling output in those industries, and reduced employment and income in the region where such industries are located.

Thus the statement that is usually made, that the standard results carry over to a world in which there is spatial choice, is too weak and fails to capture the essence oflocation theory. These considerations led to the conclusion that the role of spatial choice and the determinants of such choice would be best analysed by case study.