Bücher veröffentlicht von Brookings Institution Press

"From a modest beginning in 1935 to an income replacement scheme for workers in commerce and industry, the social security system has grown to cover 90 percent of working Americans. It now pays $78 billion a year in benefits and is obligated to pay $4 trillion in future retirement benefits to workers now covered. With a projected tax rate of 30 percent of gross wages by the year 2050 to meet its obligations under current law, the system, in the author's words, is at ""the most crucial juncture of its forty-year life.""This comprehensive review and analysis, the thirteenth in the Brookings series of Studies in Social Economics, discusses social security in relation to other sources of retirement income and clarifies its financing problem, benefit structure, and ambivalent goals. It deals with two main financing questions. First, will the payroll tax yield the revenue needed to pay benefits as the retired population rises as a fraction of the working population? Second, is the regressive social security tax really the best source of revenue for a system with welfare components such as the minimum benefit and dependents' benefits? Though such benefits are viewed as progressive, they are not paid according to need. They meet neither the income redistribution requirements nor the individual equity goals of the social security program. The author provides a comprehensive account of the benefit structure and clarifies its relation not only to the basic goals of social security but also to the country's three-tiered system of income security. She offers recommendations for eliminating ""an irrational and correctable feature of the benefit formula,"" for lowering the dependency ratio, and, most important, for a definition of goals."

The social security system affects people throughout most of their lives, at work and in retirement. The supposed effects of social security on saving, labor supply, and the distribution of income figure prominently in current debates about whether and how to change the system. Theorists have developed alternative analytical frameworks for studying social security, but all involve extreme assumptions introduced for the sake of analytical tractability. Each study seems to describe the behavior of some, but not all or even most people. The shortcomings of available data have created additional roadblocks. As a result, the effects of social security on saving and labor supply are difficult to measure, and how such a complex system influences behavior is not at all well understood.Yet decisions on social security cannot be avoided. If analysts cannot agree, policymakers are likely to increase the weight they attach to perceptions of equity, adequacy of benefits, fairness of taxes, and similar qualitative considerations. Hence it is desirable for lay observers to understand the framework that analysts use and the reasons why there is so much uncertainty.This book sheds light on social security issues by examining evidence from economic studies about how the system affects saving, labor supply, and income distribution. It shows that these studies provide little evidence to support or refute assertions that social security has reduced saving, but they do indicate that it has contributed to the trend toward early retirement. The author finds that the aged are now about as well off on the average as the general population and that social security has played a considerable role in bringing about this equality.This volume is the sixteenth in the second serioes of Brookings Studies of Government Finance.

School boards are fighting for their survival. Almost everything that they do is subject to regulations handed down from city councils, state boards of education, legislatures, and courts. "Besieged" is the first full-length volume in many years to systematically examine the politics that surround school boards.

In 1938 the U.S. Government took under its wing an infant airline industry. Government agencies assumed responsibility not only for airline safety but for setting fares and determining how individual markets would be served. Forty years later, the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 set in motion the economic deregulation of the industry and opened it to market competition. This study by Steven Morrison and Clifford Winston analyzes the effects of deregulation on both travelers and the airline industry. The authors find that lower fares and better service have netted travelers some $6 billion in annual benefits, while airline earnings have increased by $2.5 billion a year. Morrison and Winston expect still greater benefits once the industry has had time to adjust its capital structure to the unregulated marketplace, and they recommend specific public polices to ensure healthy competition.

Concern about the pervasiveness of poverty and income inequality in Latin America goes beyond the issue of social justice. The persistence of mass poverty and inequality pits different social groups against one another and leads to a polarization that makes consistent economic policy formation difficult. National productivity may also suffer in economies with poorly educated workforces lacking adequate health care. Statistics on poverty and inequality in Latin America are rudimentary and often conflicting. Yet it is known that poverty became more widespread in the region during the last decade as it experienced economic decline. About 180 million people, or two out of every five in the area, are now living in poverty-some 50 million more than in 1980. It is also known that income and wealth are far more unequally distributed in Latin America than in most other developing regions. This book provides a much-needed assessment of how poverty, inequality, and social indicators have fared in several Latin American countries over the past decade. Experts from Latin America and the U.S. focus attention on the extent of poverty and inequality and how they have been affected by the debt crisis and adjustment of the 1980s. They explain that issues of poverty and inequality were neglected as governments in Latin America struggled to restore stability and growth to their economies. Social sector spending declined sharply, affecting both the quality and quantity of services provided. The contributors examine how poverty and inequality are-or are not-being addressed in each country. They also explore the viability of alternative approaches to combating poverty and reducing inequality. They explain that virtually no one denies that governments must take a leading role in the provision of health, education, and other social services. Yet there are sharp debates--over the compatibility of social spending with economic adjustment and stabilization; the priority of social expenditures in relation to other governmental spending; the allocation of funds among different social programs; who should, and should not, benefit; and who should pay the costs. They show that the poor and middle sectors had to pay dearly because their governments, the international community, and the families themselves were not prepared to deal with austerity. The book contains eleven chapters by contributors from universities and research institutions in the U.S. and Latin America, as well as from international financial organizations. It is the result of a project cosponsored by Inter-American Dialogue.

Essays discuss the presidential nominating process, media campaign coverage, voter participation, campaign financing, election fraud, and the role of political parties.

"Japan is the great economic success story of the postwar period, growing at unprecedented rates to become one of the world's most advanced industrial nations. But since the early 1970s, Asia's economic giant has had to contend with many of the problems encountered by Western economies--slower growth, increased unemployment, rapid changes in the financial and industrial sectors--problems that have permanently transformed its economy and pose crucial challenges for its leaders.In this book, Edward J. Lincoln discusses Japan's burst of growth and the complex interplay of demographic, cultural, economic, and political forces that shaped the subsequent emergence of large domestic imbalances. The motivation and impact of Tokyo's successive attempts to deal with slower growth receive special attention: ballooning government deficits that supported domestic growth in the late 1970s, a determined switch to austerity measures in the 1980s as a surging current-account surplus conveniently buoyed the economy, and as yet uncertain responses to the recent appreciation of the yen that has capped the external surpluses.Lincoln focuses on the changes experienced by Japan's financial institutions and their implications for international economic transactions. Slower growth and altered monetary flows have brought increasing domestic and international pressures for deregulating financial institutions, and the government has responded cautiously. The study analyzes the resulting tensions and crosscurrents within Japan and the strains that have developed in relations with the United States. It concludes with a lucid presentation of Japan's options for stimulating domestic demand through reducing private-sector savings, increasing investment, and raising government spending, as well as appropriate U.S. policies to promote these outcomes. Whatever policy decisions Japan makes in the next few years will be shaped by the economic forces and institutional framework Linco"

In recent years, federal courts have become increasingly aggressive in shaping regulatory policy, abandoning their traditional deference to bureaucratic expertise. This new judicial activism has been particular evident in the regulation of air pollution. R. Shep Melnick analyzes the effects a variety of court decisions have had on federal air pollution control policy and assesses the courts' institutional capacity for policymaking in such a complex arena. In six cases studies of environmental programs or issues he examines the interplay among the courts, the Environmental Protection Agency, Congress, and the White House. The conventional wisdom is that the courts have improved environmental policymaking, but Melnick concludes that as a whole "the consequences of court action under the Clean Air Act are neither random nor beneficial." He finds that "court action has encouraged legislators and administrators to establish goals without considering how they can be achieved,? widening the gap between promise and performance. The results, he charges, have been increased cynicism, serious inefficiencies and inequities, and a lack of rational debate. An analysis of the institutional characteristics of the judicial branch reveals how these problems have come about and why they are likely to afflict other programs as well as environmental regulation. The author proposes several reforms to improve the courts' ability to handle regulatory cases.

"At the moment, the revision of security policy and the formation of a new consensus to support it are still at an early stage of development. The idea of comprehensive security cooperation among the major military establishments to form an inclusive international security arrangement has been only barely acknowledged and is only partially developed. The basic principle of cooperation has been proclaimed in general terms in the Paris Charter issued in November of 1990. Important implementing provisions have been embodied in the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (START), Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaties. Except for the regulation of U.S. and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) strategic forces, however, these arrangements apply only to the European theater and even there have not been systematically developed. The formation of a new security order requires that cooperative theaters of military engagement be systematically developed. Clearly that exercise will stretch the minds of all those whose thinking about security has been premised on confrontational methods.Nonetheless, such a stretching is unavoidable. The new security problems are driven by powerful forces, reshaping the entire international context. They impose starkly different requirements. They will deflect even the impressive momentum of U.S. military traditions. The eventual outcome is uncertain. It turns upon political debates yet to be held, consensus judgements yet to form, and events and their implications yet to unfold. Fundamental reconceptualization of security policy is a necessary step in the right direction, and it is important to get on with it. Getting on with it means defining the new concept of cooperative security, identifying the trends that motivate it, outlining its implications for practical policy action, and acknowledging its constraints. These tasks are the purpose of this essay."

"A key issue in the debate about reforming the U.S. health care system is how to finance and organize the delivery of long-term care. This volume offers perspectives on several important facets of this problem, including the regulation of private long-term care insurance, catastrophic out-of-pocket costs, and the use of long-term care and acute care services by the chronically disabled elderly.In addition to the editors, the contributors are Lisa Alecxih, David Kennell, and John Corea, Lewin-VHI; Brian Burwell and William Crown, SysteMetrics; Terry Coughlin, Korbin Liu, and Sharon Long, Urban Institute; Judith Kasper, Johns Hopkins University; Kenneth Manton and P.J. Eric Stallard, Duke University; Jennifer Schore, Mathematica Policy Research; Catherine Sullivan, Brookings; and Bruce Vladeck, Health Care Financing Administration.Dialogues on Public Policy "

"In the final days of this century, the United States will need to amend the core of its foreign policy-a formidable task in a large democracy. American thinking, still grounded in post-World War II perceptions, has failed to keep pace with the demands of a changing world. New realities in the U.S. and international economies, in security conditions, and in world politics call for restructuring American foreign policy.The policy experts contributing to this volume state the process of public debate that must precede the hard political choices ahead. Barry P. Bosworth and Robert Z. Lawrence consider the ramifications of an American economy no longer an implicit source of leverage in pursuing policy objectives. William W. Kaufmann prescribes ways to preserve international commitments and ensure American security in spite of fiscally constrained defense budgets. John D. Steinbruner discusses efforts to achieve a more stable military balance. In a related chapters, Kenneth Flamm and Thomas L. McNaugher propose a redraft of American investment patterns to make the defense technology more consistent with contemporary security requirements.All of this domestic restructuring will take place within the constraints and opportunities created by recent changes in China and the Soviet Union, continued economic expansion in Japan, and persistent unrest in the Middle East. Harry Harding and Ed A. Hewett review the prospects for reform in China and the Soviet Union. Harry Harding and Edward Lincoln describe the surge in many Asian economies and the increased importance of Japan as a world power. And in the final chapter, Harold H. Saunders turns attention to the Middle East, where identifying desirable solutions continues to be far easier than finding realistic methods for achieving them.The inauguration of a new administration creates an opportunity for political debate, a new conceptual focus, and effective political consensus. Restructuring American F"

Examines the development of anti-satellite weapons and discusses the American and Soviet policies concerning the military use of space.

"The transition to a market economy proves to be far more difficult in Russia than in the former centrally planned economies of eastern Europe. The Russian economy continues to face serious problems, including substantial inflationary pressures, falling output, and capital flight. The most positive aspect of the transition has been the relatively fast pace of privatization.Challenges for Russian Economic Reform contains papers published by the post-Soviet Business Forum at the Royal Institute of International Affairs that have been revised for this volume. The contributers, specalists in Russian economic affairs, examine the principal economic and institutional factors that have hindered transformation in Russia. The sheer size of the country has complicated the problem of exposing domestic producers to foreign competition and has weakened the ability of central authorities to control the regions. Economic stabilization has been hampered by the difficulties in establishing sound economic relations with the former Soviet republics.David Dyker and Michael Barrow analyze the problems of monopoly and competition policy in Russia. Philip Hanson assesses the obstacles to economic stabilization posed by regional economic interests and examines regional diversity in reform implementation. Michael Kaser examines the problems of privatization by regions and sectors in Russia and the CIS and the institutional obstacles encountered by foreign investors. Alan Smith explores the problems created by the breakup of traditional trade and payment relations with the non-Russian republics of the former Soviet Union and bilateral trade links with Eastern Europe. He also provides an overall assessment of Russian economic performance since the collapse of communism."

"In the late 1970s and 1980s, Middle Eastern states spent more than $600 billion expanding their military forces. They acquired thousands of tanks, advanced fighter aircraft, ballistic missiles, chemical weapons, and-in some cases-nuclear devices. These potent arsenals make the Middle East the tinderbox of world affairs.In this book, foreign policy analyst Yahya Sadowski shows that the arms race cannot be sustained in the 1990s. Declining oil prices, overpopulation, economic mismanagement, and foreign policy adventures-such as the 1992 Gulf War, which cost local states another $600 billion-have sapped the economies of the Middle East. Facing dwindling incomes and rising expenses, growing numbers of Middle Easterners now favor diverting funds away from military expenditures and concentrating them on economic development programs.Sadowski argues that arms control programs for the Middle East should be designed to reinforce and exploit these economic pressures for demilitarization. He examines the strengths and weaknesses of various arms control proposals, such as the U.S. call for a cartel of weapons exporters and a Jordanian plan to liquidate the foreign debt of states that curb military expenditures."

"A Brookings Institution Press and National Academy for Social Insurance publicationThis book presents a cross-cutting assessment of disability income policy in public and private programs in the United States and in European countries. It evaluates whether there is a crisis in disability benefit policy, drawing on an in-depth review of Social Security disability programs by a panel of national experts. In addition to highlighting the panel's findings and recommendations for reform, the authors debate issues in financing and delivering quality health care through Medicare and Medicaid for working-age persons with disabilities, and they examine new developments in how Workers' Compensation organizes and finances cash benefits and health care for workers injured on the job. These developments in benefits and health policy for disabled workers are examined in light of budget constraints and challenges posed by today's rapidly changing labor market. The book concludes with a provocative discussion of ""where are the jobs?""--an assessment of growing wage inequality between less skilled and highly skilled workers and the implication of labor market trends for goals of promoting employment among persons with chronic health conditions or disabilities.The contributors include Monroe Berkowitz, Rutgers University; Richard V. Burkhauser, Syracuse University; John Burton, Rutgers University; Philip de Jong, Institute for Law and Public Policy, Leiden University, the Netherlands; Alan Krueger, Princeton University; Katherine Newman, Harvard University; Van Ooms, Committee on Economic Development; Dallas Salisbury, Employee Benefit Research Institute; Leslie Scallet, Mental Health Policy Resource Center; and the Honorable Bruce C. Vladek, Health Care Financing Administration."

"In 1983 Congress changed the way Medicare pays for hospital care. Under the new prospective payment system, hospitals are paid a fixed rate, set in advance, to cover a patient's stay. If costs are less than the fixed rates, the hospital keeps the profit; if the costs are more, it absorbs the loss. From the beginning, prospective payment was recognized as a revolutionary change in Medicare. Congress wanted a system that would make federal expenditures more predictable and controllable, and expected hospitals to respond by becoming more efficient. Some observers have hailed it as a successful way to control the spiraling costs of the Medicare program. Others have criticized it as arbitrary and a threat to the health of the elderly.In the six years since prospective payment was introduced, a substantial amount of evidence has accumulated about its effects. Russell looks at the major characteristics of the rate payment system, how it has changed the pattern of medical service, how these changes have affected the health of the beneficiaries, and the system's effects on Medicare outlays. She reviews what is known and what needs to be learned to arrive at a valid assessment of the system. Moreover, she contributes to the larger debate on Medicare by making what are frequently quite technical evaluations accessible to the general public."

"What is the outlook for educational reform in the United States? One of the most striking proposals has been to establish a system of national standards, which has raised many complex questions: Is it possible for the United States, with its history of extreme decentralization, to establish and enforce national standards for what students should know? Who will create these standards? What would be the role of the federal, state, and local governments?While the idea of national standards has been widely supported, many respected educators doubt their value from fear that such standards will institutionalize the lowest common denominator. Others cite the poor performance of U.S. students on international tests and insist that the U.S. will suffer because of this poor performance. The debate becomes even more intense when the question of assessment is posed. Is it possible to develop a national examination system tied to new standards? Should such tests be used to influence entry to colleges and jobs? Would the motivation of students to learn be increased if they knew that their performance would be reviewed by colleges and employers? Is it fair to set standards for students without setting standards for schools?To address these and other questions, this book, the result of a Brookings conference, brings together representatives of various viewpoints on the utility and equity of increasing the use of tests for students, teachers, and schools.The contributors are Chester Finn, Jr., the Edison Project; Daniel Koretz, RAND; Andrew Porter, Wisconsin Center for Education Research; Lauren Resnick, University of Pittsburgh; Roy Romer, Governor of Colorado; Albert Shanker, American Federation of Teachers; Theodore R. Sizer, Brown University; Marshall C. Smith, U.S. Department of Education; and Donald M. Stewart, The College Board.Brookings Dialogues on Public Policy"

"This book examines the nature of the international arms trade and the adjustment of the defense industries in the United States and Russia to the post-cold war world. O'Prey highlights the substantial reduction in demand for armaments both on the world market and by the two countries. Although this decrease in demand results partly from the decline of the superpower rivalry, it also represents the culmination of technological and industrial trends that have been under way for over a decade.O'Prey argues that many observers have not recognized the long-term nature of these changes. As a consequence, industry representatives and some government officials in both countries often unwisely emphasize arms exports as a means to preserve their cold war defense industries. Given the high expectations of export success and low levels of demand, competition among arms suppliers has become intense. In the process, proliferation of armaments, technologies, and production processes to outlaw states has become more likely. In addition, false expectations of arms export success may lead officials to forgo necessary restructuring and conversion of their defense industries. This problem is especially pronounced in Russia.O'Prey offers a number of suggestions for resolving the problems posed by arms export competition and defense industry adjustment. He argues that in virtually all cases, cooperation or partnership between the U.S. and Russia will be essential. Potential measures range from mutual restraint in arms exports to private industry partnerships for defense conversion and ultimately to multilateral initiatives for defense industry and export cooperation."

"Military analyst Michael O'Hanlon shows how outside forces could successfully intervene to stop an ongoing cycle of warfare in a country whose government has collapsed or come under severe internal challenge.Based largely on recent U.S. experiences in Panama, Somalia, Bosnia, and elsewhere, as well as on U.S. military doctrine and information from the Pentagon's training and simulation centers, the book discusses the steps in an intervention and estimates likely casualties and costs. O'Hanlon shows that modern Western militaries are capable of executing these types of operations with high proficiency. While conditions are unlikely to resemble those of Desert Storm, which allowed the U.S. and allies to take full advantage of modern technology, top-notch militaries have advantages in infantry combat situations-night-vision equipment, attack and transport helicopters, counterartillery radars-that would enable them to establish order and prevail in any firefights.O'Hanlon warns that operations as casualty-free as those in Haiti and, to date, in Bosnia would be unlikely. Moreover, the political framework that outside powers would attempt to employ in establishing a new order would be critical: if intervening forces are seen as taking sides or occupying territory without legitimacy, they could meet protracted guerrilla-style resistance of the types witnessed in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Somalia.Part of the Studies in Foreign Affairs series"

"Spending on U.S. foreign affairs, which constitutes only about one percent of the federal budget, is being sharply reduced. Under the President's 1996 budget plan, it will decline by just as great a percentage as defense between 1990 and 2002-and by substantially more than defense over the 1980-2002 period. No other major category of federal spending will undergo a real cut over either time period. The shrinking budget, totaling about $19 billion in 1997, will still have to fund the State Department, international broadcasting and educational exchanges, trade subsidies and investment guarantees for U.S. business overseas; United Nations operations including peacekeeping, and all types of foreign assistance.In this book, O'Hanlon and Graham focus primarily on this last component of international spending. Specifically, they analyze U.S. official development assistance (ODA) to poor countries. The authors place U.S. ODA in a broad historical, international, and economic perspective. They then recommend an alternative approach to ODA for the United States as well as other donors. They favor continuing to provide humanitarian and grass-roots aid to most poor countries, but providing ODA to promote macroeconomic growth only to those countries that maintain coherent, market-oriented economic policy frameworks. The authors argue that to provide effective aid, as well as to maintain U.S. leadership in world affairs, net resources for ODA and the international account need to increase only modestly. "

The nation's capital is in a fiscal and political crisis. By 1995 the District of Columbia did not have the cash to pay its bills and faced a growing operating deficit. It was effectively shut out of the capital markets and at least three of its government agencies were in receivership. On any given day, 30 percent of the police vehicles were in the shop for repairs and 25 percent of the school buses were inoperable. Nor were adequate funds coming in: property assessors were making up the rules as they were undervaluing the tax base. In April 1995 Congress, beginning to come to grips with the situation, placed the fiscal control of the city in the hands of a presidentially appointed Control Board. The survival of the nation's capital is a matter of national concern. The Control Board and the chief financial officer have outlined the path to balancing the budget by 1999. Once the District government can deliver services efficiently, the issue of how they should be financed will need to be addressed. That is the focus of this book. Carol O'Cleireacain provides background for understanding the present situation, focusing on the revenue components and offering a realistic menu of revenue options for long-term, ongoing budget balance. She addresses such questions as: What is the "norm" for a city the size of Washington? What is the appropriate sharing among the federal government, District residents, and the region? How much compensation should be paid for the huge amount of tax-exempt property and the enormous number of nonprofit organizations in the capital? What taxes can the District impose fairly, collect efficiently without distorting decisions of individuals and businesses about where to locate? O'Cleireacain concludes that the District's fiscal crisis is the result, in part, of economic and demographic trends reflecting the dilemmas of central cities and their suburbs nationwide; in part, the historically flawed relationship between Congress and the local government. But at the heart of the District's fiscal crisis is its special status as the nation's capital. All other American cities benefit from state aid for welfare, Medicaid, prisons, higher education, juvenile justice, and a wide range of highway, infrastructure, and other capital investments. The District does not; it has to tax its residents in order to provide state-type services. Ongoing budget balance in D.C. will require a realignment of spending and revenue responsibilities by the federal government acting as the state parent to the nation's orphaned capital.

"The U.S. is not alone in its worries over the quality of its schools and the skills of its workforce.Not a single industrial nation is entirely happy with its education and worker training programs. But in four European countries-France, Britain, Sweden, and West Germany-educators have joined hands with government, industry, and local communities to face the problem head-on.The results of their imaginative initiatives recently were observed firsthand by participants in an equally innovative U.S. project-the West Philadelphia Improvement Corps (WEPIC). Support from the German Marshall Fund of the United States enabled two WEPIC groups-including public school teachers, principals, and administrators, as well as city and state policymakers-to tour some of the best European education, youth employment, and community development programs.SchoolWorks describes what these groups found in Europe. It also profiles a project that is seeking to make West Philadelphia schools the life centers of their communities. Finally, it presents guiding principles for strengthening workforce competence in America, with particular emphasis on those Americans who will make up an increasingly significant portion of our future workforce-young minorities and blacks from our most disadvantaged neighborhoods.A German Marshal Fund of the U.S. Book"

"Since the beginning of the crisis precipitated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, the threat posed by Iraq's arsenal of ballistic missiles has been the focus of international attention. In the opening days of the U.S.-led military counteroffensive beginning on January 16, 1992, Iraq launched ballistic missiles against population centers in Israel and military bases in Saudi Arabia. The attacks intensified the terror of the war and prompted renewed efforts by the multinational force to destroy Saddam Hussein's military machine.The countries aligned against Iraq were prepared for attacks by chemically armed missiles, but Iraq's missile force proved to be of little military consequence. The missiles that survived the opening hours of Operation Desert Storm were conventionally armed, inaccurate and unreliable. Most of those that were actually launched either were intercepted by American antimissile defenses or failed to hit vital targets.But the political impact of the missiles was inestimable. The strikes symbolized Iraq's determination to prosecute the war no matter what the cost. By threatening to involve Israel, they created severe tensions and posed the risk that multinational military coalition would be dissolved, and they underscored the potential vulnerability of all the states in the region to Iraqi aggression.In this book, Janne E. Nolan argues that the use of missiles is a harbinger of the altered international security environment confronting the Untied States and its allies in the late twentieth century. Long believed to be a distant prospect, the adoption of technological resources to missile development is already occurring in over a dozen developing countries, many of them long-standing regional antagonists. These capabilities present complicated challenges to American interests and foreign policy, challenges that have only begun to be explored as a result of the Iraqi crisis.The author examines the evolution"