Bücher veröffentlicht von Brookings Institution Press

Energy Security in the 1980s examines energy industries, power resources, and energy policy, and international economics.

This is the thirty-fifth volume in the Brookings Studies of Government Finance series. In the first of its four essays, "Analytical Foundations of Fiscal Policy," Alan S. Blinder of Princeton University and Robert M. Solow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology survey the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of fiscal policy. After discussing how the influence of fiscal policy on macroeconomic activity ought to be assessed, the authors examine and find inadequate the dictum that government should balance the budget rather than the economy. They defend-again both theoretically and empirically-the efficacy of fiscal policy against the monetarist challenge. From an examination of the lags and uncertainties in the operation of fiscal policy and an analysis of the 1968-70 income tax surcharge, they conclude that, although much remains to be learned about the econometrics of policy multipliers, the post-surcharge experience in no way undermines the theoretical foundations of fiscal policy. Where the burdens of various taxes fall has been a matter of intense interest to economic theorists in the last twenty years. As public expenditures (and taxpayer resistance) rise, not only must policy makers try to distribute the burdens of taxation equitably, but they must also attempt to move toward national goals by judicious use of tax instruments. George F. Break of the University of California at Berkeley, in "The Incidence and Economic Effects of Taxation,? a comprehensive review of recent tax literature, focuses on the theoretical studies that have helped to expand knowledge of tax incidence and the empirical studies that support newly developed hypotheses. In each area he surveys-the design of theoretical and general sales and income taxes; the effect of economic choices, both of individuals and businesses, on the national well-being-Break indicates the ground still to be covered and the potential benefits of further inquiry. In "Public Expenditure Budgeting,? Peter O. Steiner of the University of Michigan explores the literature dealing with the hard questions underlying public expenditures. What is the public interest? How does the community decide whether the government should undertake or finance a given activity, instead of leaving it to a private action or inaction? On what basis should incremental expenditure decisions of governmental units be made? Steiner reviews the various approaches scholars have taken to the difficult questions surrounding the appropriateness of governmental provision of particular goods and services. Although he finds none of the models fully satisfactory, his work contributes to the debate concerning the process by which collective values are articulated and collective decisions come to be accepted as binding. Dick Netzer's "State-Local Finance and Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations? clarifies the debate that centered around the initial proposals for revenue sharing. The author, Dean of New York University's Graduate School of Public Administration, explores the appropriate distribution of responsibility for public services among federal, state, and local governments, the appropriate revenue systems for the subnational governments, and the appropriate means of coordinating the systems with the responsibilities.

Among its many important effects, the political revolution in central Europe has provided a sharp reminder that international security is as much a state of mind as it is a physical condition. The threat of a Soviet invasion of Western Europe, long hypothesized by Western defense ministries on the basis of a perceived imbalance in inherent conventional force capability, is now acknowledged to be a practical impossibility because shifts in political alignment have been credited. In the wake of that judgement, the force deployments themselves are virtually certain to be reduced, equalized, and disengaged, thereby removing firepower advantage as a threat to international stability. Moreover, though the intrinsic connection is remote, a similar judgement seems to be affecting global strategic deployments. As strategic forces are projected to be reduced to common ceilings by mutual agreement, the fear of preemptive attacks on theoretically vulnerable land-based installations appears to be receding more rapidly than the inherent capability that originally inspired it.This relief from the narrowly focused, obsessive fears that have dominated U.S. security policy for several decades is certainly a constructive development, but unfortunately it is not comprehensively valid. For strategic forces in particular, some subtle interaction between human judgement and physical capability remain potentially dangerous, presenting a security problem that will not be resolved simply by completing the projected agenda of national weapons development and international arms control agreements. The problem arises from conceivable combinations of events that are undoubtedly improbable but unprecedentedly catastrophic should any of them ever occur. The standards of safety that have evolved for improbable disasters of much smaller magnitude-nuclear reactor meltdown, for example-have been applied to only peacetime operations and have not been extended to the circumstances of advanced crisis or to the actual implications of combat operations. To appreciate the implications of this limitation and the dangers that emerge from it requires a substantial revision of standard perspectives on strategic security.

The well-documented gap between men's and women's earnings has aroused intense debate over the concept of comparable worth, that is, equal pay for work judged to be of equal value. Government, business, labor unions, and the courts have been forced to consider whether workers in dissimilar jobs of comparable worth-measured by such criteria as working conditions, degree of difficulty, and knowledge and responsibility required-should receive equal wages, and how wage adjustments can be implemented.The issue has provoked inflated rhetoric, litigation, and considerable confusion.In this concise study, Henry J. Aaron and Cameran M. Lougy review the conditions that have sparked the debate and unravel the implications of comparable worth for employers in public and private sectors, for labor union agendas and employer-employee negotiations, and for the administrative and and judicial burdens of the nation's courts. The authors conclude with general guidelines for implementing wage adjustments in ways that would not seriously disrupt society or have a major impact on overall economic efficiency.

"Reform of the United States tax system has become a central political issue. Assessing Tax Reform is a concise, nontechnical book to help general readers and students understand the tax reform issues Congress is now debating. Henry Aaron and Harvey Galper lay out the major alternative proposals and analyze principles of taxation that can be used for judging them. They explore the issues surrounding a move to a comprehensive income tax, a cash-flow tax, and the value-added tax or other consumption-based taxes. They show the conflicts and opportunities resulting from large current government deficits and the move for tax reform.In addition to clarifying the problems that must be solved if large-scale, long-term reform is to be achieved, the authors describe alternative strategies for increasing revenues quickly. They also present their own program for a fair, efficient, and less complex tax structure. They conclude with an examination of the political pitfalls that continue to make any major improvements in the tax system hard to enact."

"The design and use of federal grants-in-aid to state and local governments have posed policy choices for every presidential administration since that of Lyndon B. Johnson. The papers in this volume describe the decisions these administrations have made, analyze why only some of these choices prevailed politically, and explain how large amounts of federal aid have affected local governments.These studies mark the final chapter in a major research effort carried out by the Brookings Governmental Studies program to evaluate the effects of general revenue sharing and other broad-based forms of aid that were introduced in the early 1970s.Kenneth T. Palmer traces the major steps in the evolution of grants-in-aid since the Johnson administration. Lawrence D. Brown's essay on the politics of devolution examines the successes and failures of innovative grant policies such as revenue sharing and block grants. James W. Fossett, writing on the politics of dependence, analyzes the effect of the massive expansion of federal grants to the large cities in the 1970s."

"Americans spend more than $100 billion a year to buy weapons, but no one likes the process that brings these weapons into existence. The problem, McNaugher shows, is that the technical needs of engineers and military planners clash sharply with the political demands of Congress. McNaugher examines weapons procurement since World War II and shows how repeated efforts to improve weapons acquisition have instead increased the harmful intrusion of political pressures into that technical development and procurement process.Today's weapons are more complicated than their predecessors. So are the nation's military forces. The design of new systems and their integration into the force structure demand more care, time, and flexibility. Yet time and flexibility are precisely what political pressures remove from the acquisitions process.In a series of case studies and conceptual discussions, McNaugher tackles concerns at the heart of the debate about acquisition-the slow and heavily bureaucratic approach to development, the preference for ultimate weapons over well-organized and trained forces, and the counterproductive incentives facing the nation's defense firms. He calls for changes that run against the current fashion-less centralization or procurement, less haste in developing new weapons, and greater use of competition as a means of removing the development process from political oversight.Above all, McNaugher shows how the United States tries to buy research and development on the cheap, and how costly this has been. The nation can improve its acquisition process, he concludes, only when it recognizes the need to pay for the full exploration of new technology."

Egypt has long been valued for its strategic importance in the Middle East and North Africa, but its relationship with the United States continues to evolve. Egypt is the second largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid and has been a key player in the Middle East peace process. This volume by William B. Quandt first provides an authoritative analysis of the successful U.S.-Egyptian relationship-both past and present-and then examines policy options for the future. Quandt explains that it is important for American policymakers to honestly assess the strengths and weaknesses of the ties that link the United States and Egypt, to think of how best the relationship might evolve, and to try to establish a stronger basis for cooperation, especially in the area of economic assistance and debt repayment. For the sake of its broad interests in the region, the United States must also remain involved in promoting a broadening of the Arab-Israeli peace process.

"State and local governments are at a financial crossroads. As the federal government attempts to reduce its deficits, state governments will have to provide a greater share of support for mandatory social programs. Local governments face demands for new initiatives in education and for civic improvements. Both have obligations to employee pension plans that are large and still relatively untested. Running counter to these claims on state and local budgets is a voter effort to limit the amounts that governments may tax or spend.This fourth edition of James A. Maxwell's classic and widely acclaimed book will help both layman and lawmaker understand the choices open to their governments. It provides a lucid, nontechnical analysis of state and local finance. It gives concise descriptions of the taxes, grants, debt issues, and user charges that finance state and local government and discusses their relative virtues and drawbacks. It traces the history of state and local finance and presents statistical data on expenditures, federal aid, revenue from taxes and user charges, debt, and pension funds. The new edition, in recognition of changes since the mid-1970s, also includes a separate chapter on financing education and broadened analyses of federal grant programs, employee retirement systems, and nonguaranteed municipal debt."

Bookshelves abound with theoretical analyses, how-to guides, and personal success stories by famous corporate leaders, public officials, even athletic coaches, expounding on how to lead from the top. But what about those in the middle who are increasingly tasked with trying to reshape, reorient, or recreate the capabilities of an organization?Leading Change from the Middle takes you on the journeys traveled by Kurt Mayer, an information technology executive in the Department of Defense trying to build a new IT system in record time with limited resources, and Stephen Wang, a mid-level leader in city government trying to build a capability for supporting commercial agriculture. Kurt and Stephen have to navigate complex organizational and stakeholder landscapes in which they often have few decision rights and few resources¿a common scenario for mid-level leaders. One succeeds; one does not.While following Kurt and Stephen, the book introduces a new approach for increasing the likelihood of successfully leading change. This new approach breaks down into three core strategies: First, identify all relevant stakeholders and partition them into four categories: superordinates, subordinates, customers, and complementors/blockers (those who control needed resources but over whom the leaders have no authority).Second, for each stakeholder category, identify Communications, Strategies, and Tactics (referred to as CoSTS).Third, don't stimulate negative emotions that make people DEAF¿Disrespect, Envy, Anger, and Fear¿to efforts to produce change. As the book follows the journeys of Kurt and Stephen, it walks through the details of each strategy.In presenting this material in a concise, accessible, and applicable format that translates theory to practice, Nickerson provides an important service for leaders trying to build extraordinary capabilities for their organizations¿from the middle.

" The Economics of Federal Credit Programs discusses government lending, government guaranty of loans, and credit control in the United States."

"From a modest beginning in 1935 to an income replacement scheme for workers in commerce and industry, the social security system has grown to cover 90 percent of working Americans. It now pays $78 billion a year in benefits and is obligated to pay $4 trillion in future retirement benefits to workers now covered. With a projected tax rate of 30 percent of gross wages by the year 2050 to meet its obligations under current law, the system, in the author's words, is at ""the most crucial juncture of its forty-year life.""This comprehensive review and analysis, the thirteenth in the Brookings series of Studies in Social Economics, discusses social security in relation to other sources of retirement income and clarifies its financing problem, benefit structure, and ambivalent goals. It deals with two main financing questions. First, will the payroll tax yield the revenue needed to pay benefits as the retired population rises as a fraction of the working population? Second, is the regressive social security tax really the best source of revenue for a system with welfare components such as the minimum benefit and dependents' benefits? Though such benefits are viewed as progressive, they are not paid according to need. They meet neither the income redistribution requirements nor the individual equity goals of the social security program. The author provides a comprehensive account of the benefit structure and clarifies its relation not only to the basic goals of social security but also to the country's three-tiered system of income security. She offers recommendations for eliminating ""an irrational and correctable feature of the benefit formula,"" for lowering the dependency ratio, and, most important, for a definition of goals."

The social security system affects people throughout most of their lives, at work and in retirement. The supposed effects of social security on saving, labor supply, and the distribution of income figure prominently in current debates about whether and how to change the system. Theorists have developed alternative analytical frameworks for studying social security, but all involve extreme assumptions introduced for the sake of analytical tractability. Each study seems to describe the behavior of some, but not all or even most people. The shortcomings of available data have created additional roadblocks. As a result, the effects of social security on saving and labor supply are difficult to measure, and how such a complex system influences behavior is not at all well understood.Yet decisions on social security cannot be avoided. If analysts cannot agree, policymakers are likely to increase the weight they attach to perceptions of equity, adequacy of benefits, fairness of taxes, and similar qualitative considerations. Hence it is desirable for lay observers to understand the framework that analysts use and the reasons why there is so much uncertainty.This book sheds light on social security issues by examining evidence from economic studies about how the system affects saving, labor supply, and income distribution. It shows that these studies provide little evidence to support or refute assertions that social security has reduced saving, but they do indicate that it has contributed to the trend toward early retirement. The author finds that the aged are now about as well off on the average as the general population and that social security has played a considerable role in bringing about this equality.This volume is the sixteenth in the second serioes of Brookings Studies of Government Finance.

School boards are fighting for their survival. Almost everything that they do is subject to regulations handed down from city councils, state boards of education, legislatures, and courts. "Besieged" is the first full-length volume in many years to systematically examine the politics that surround school boards.

In their new book, Jack Triplett and Barry Bosworth analyze services sector productivity, demonstrating that fundamental changes have taken place in this sector of the U.S. economy.

In 1938 the U.S. Government took under its wing an infant airline industry. Government agencies assumed responsibility not only for airline safety but for setting fares and determining how individual markets would be served. Forty years later, the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 set in motion the economic deregulation of the industry and opened it to market competition. This study by Steven Morrison and Clifford Winston analyzes the effects of deregulation on both travelers and the airline industry. The authors find that lower fares and better service have netted travelers some $6 billion in annual benefits, while airline earnings have increased by $2.5 billion a year. Morrison and Winston expect still greater benefits once the industry has had time to adjust its capital structure to the unregulated marketplace, and they recommend specific public polices to ensure healthy competition.

Concern about the pervasiveness of poverty and income inequality in Latin America goes beyond the issue of social justice. The persistence of mass poverty and inequality pits different social groups against one another and leads to a polarization that makes consistent economic policy formation difficult. National productivity may also suffer in economies with poorly educated workforces lacking adequate health care. Statistics on poverty and inequality in Latin America are rudimentary and often conflicting. Yet it is known that poverty became more widespread in the region during the last decade as it experienced economic decline. About 180 million people, or two out of every five in the area, are now living in poverty-some 50 million more than in 1980. It is also known that income and wealth are far more unequally distributed in Latin America than in most other developing regions. This book provides a much-needed assessment of how poverty, inequality, and social indicators have fared in several Latin American countries over the past decade. Experts from Latin America and the U.S. focus attention on the extent of poverty and inequality and how they have been affected by the debt crisis and adjustment of the 1980s. They explain that issues of poverty and inequality were neglected as governments in Latin America struggled to restore stability and growth to their economies. Social sector spending declined sharply, affecting both the quality and quantity of services provided. The contributors examine how poverty and inequality are-or are not-being addressed in each country. They also explore the viability of alternative approaches to combating poverty and reducing inequality. They explain that virtually no one denies that governments must take a leading role in the provision of health, education, and other social services. Yet there are sharp debates--over the compatibility of social spending with economic adjustment and stabilization; the priority of social expenditures in relation to other governmental spending; the allocation of funds among different social programs; who should, and should not, benefit; and who should pay the costs. They show that the poor and middle sectors had to pay dearly because their governments, the international community, and the families themselves were not prepared to deal with austerity. The book contains eleven chapters by contributors from universities and research institutions in the U.S. and Latin America, as well as from international financial organizations. It is the result of a project cosponsored by Inter-American Dialogue.

"A Brookings Institution Press and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) publicationFinancial crises in emerging economies are very different today than they were in the past. Between 1940 and the 1970s, such traumas involved large fiscal deficits, repressed domestic financial systems, and balance of payments situations that were associated with a sharp worsening of terms of trade.In recent years, however, a ""new variety"" of crisis has evolved in Asia and Latin America. Many of the emerging economies that have experienced financial trauma have been considered very successful until the crises explode.This collection focuses on such economies. The five contributors provide policy-oriented analysis that seeks to identify crucial variables that affect the probability or intensity of crisis.Joséeacute; Antonio Ocampo (ECLAC) and Ricardo Ffrench-Davis explore the variables that play a part in determining whether a financial crisis is likely to occur. They analyze ""vulnerability zones"" for certain key variables-such as net liquid external liabilities, current-account deficits, and real exchange rates-and examine how and why capital surges have contributed to worsen marcoeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies.Manuel Agosin (University of Chile) draws a parallel between Korea and Taiwan, showing how the two countries had similar histories between the mid-1960s and the early 1990s, then followed different paths during the 1990s.Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ECLAC) concentrates on Chile's experience with three ""positive"" financial shocks: in the 1970s, in 1991-94, and in 1995-97.Jaime Ros (Notre Dame University) explores contrasting situations in Mexico in 1991-94 and 1996-97, and discusses the variables that explain the marked differences between the two episodes.Ricardo Ffrench-Davis is principal regional adviser at ECLAC and co-founder of the Center for Economic Research on Latin America (CIEPLAN). He is the author or editor of fifteen books on international economics, development, strategies, foreign financial, and Latin American economies, including Reforming the Reforms: Macro, Trade, Finance (Palgrave/Macmillan, 1999)."

Essays discuss the presidential nominating process, media campaign coverage, voter participation, campaign financing, election fraud, and the role of political parties.

"Japan is the great economic success story of the postwar period, growing at unprecedented rates to become one of the world's most advanced industrial nations. But since the early 1970s, Asia's economic giant has had to contend with many of the problems encountered by Western economies--slower growth, increased unemployment, rapid changes in the financial and industrial sectors--problems that have permanently transformed its economy and pose crucial challenges for its leaders.In this book, Edward J. Lincoln discusses Japan's burst of growth and the complex interplay of demographic, cultural, economic, and political forces that shaped the subsequent emergence of large domestic imbalances. The motivation and impact of Tokyo's successive attempts to deal with slower growth receive special attention: ballooning government deficits that supported domestic growth in the late 1970s, a determined switch to austerity measures in the 1980s as a surging current-account surplus conveniently buoyed the economy, and as yet uncertain responses to the recent appreciation of the yen that has capped the external surpluses.Lincoln focuses on the changes experienced by Japan's financial institutions and their implications for international economic transactions. Slower growth and altered monetary flows have brought increasing domestic and international pressures for deregulating financial institutions, and the government has responded cautiously. The study analyzes the resulting tensions and crosscurrents within Japan and the strains that have developed in relations with the United States. It concludes with a lucid presentation of Japan's options for stimulating domestic demand through reducing private-sector savings, increasing investment, and raising government spending, as well as appropriate U.S. policies to promote these outcomes. Whatever policy decisions Japan makes in the next few years will be shaped by the economic forces and institutional framework Linco"

In recent years, federal courts have become increasingly aggressive in shaping regulatory policy, abandoning their traditional deference to bureaucratic expertise. This new judicial activism has been particular evident in the regulation of air pollution. R. Shep Melnick analyzes the effects a variety of court decisions have had on federal air pollution control policy and assesses the courts' institutional capacity for policymaking in such a complex arena. In six cases studies of environmental programs or issues he examines the interplay among the courts, the Environmental Protection Agency, Congress, and the White House. The conventional wisdom is that the courts have improved environmental policymaking, but Melnick concludes that as a whole "the consequences of court action under the Clean Air Act are neither random nor beneficial." He finds that "court action has encouraged legislators and administrators to establish goals without considering how they can be achieved,? widening the gap between promise and performance. The results, he charges, have been increased cynicism, serious inefficiencies and inequities, and a lack of rational debate. An analysis of the institutional characteristics of the judicial branch reveals how these problems have come about and why they are likely to afflict other programs as well as environmental regulation. The author proposes several reforms to improve the courts' ability to handle regulatory cases.

"Topics include:Part One: Voters and ElectionsThe New Two-Party SystemThe Economic Basis of Reagan's AppealIncumbency and Realignment in Congressional ElectionsCampaigning, Governing, and the Contemporary PresidencyThe Republican Advantage in Campaign FinanceThe Rise of National PartiesPart Two: Institutions and PolicyNew Patterns of Decisionmaking in CongressThe Politicized PresidencyFederalism and the Bias for CentralizationControlling EntitlementsSecurity PolicyThe New Politics of Deficits"

"This volume provides an in-depth examination of six political campaigns waged during competitive 1998 races for the U.S. House of Representatives. The case studies evaluate the professional political consultants who managed each campaign, their interaction with the candidates, and the impact of the campaigns on voters. Relying on unparalleled access to both the consultants involved and the candidates themselves, the contributors explore the electoral setting and context of the congressional districts, the strategy, theme, and message of each campaign, the consultants' decisionmaking, fund-raising, and spending, and any outside forces that entered into the races. The book features new data on tracking, polls, and television advertising budgets."

"At the moment, the revision of security policy and the formation of a new consensus to support it are still at an early stage of development. The idea of comprehensive security cooperation among the major military establishments to form an inclusive international security arrangement has been only barely acknowledged and is only partially developed. The basic principle of cooperation has been proclaimed in general terms in the Paris Charter issued in November of 1990. Important implementing provisions have been embodied in the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (START), Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaties. Except for the regulation of U.S. and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) strategic forces, however, these arrangements apply only to the European theater and even there have not been systematically developed. The formation of a new security order requires that cooperative theaters of military engagement be systematically developed. Clearly that exercise will stretch the minds of all those whose thinking about security has been premised on confrontational methods.Nonetheless, such a stretching is unavoidable. The new security problems are driven by powerful forces, reshaping the entire international context. They impose starkly different requirements. They will deflect even the impressive momentum of U.S. military traditions. The eventual outcome is uncertain. It turns upon political debates yet to be held, consensus judgements yet to form, and events and their implications yet to unfold. Fundamental reconceptualization of security policy is a necessary step in the right direction, and it is important to get on with it. Getting on with it means defining the new concept of cooperative security, identifying the trends that motivate it, outlining its implications for practical policy action, and acknowledging its constraints. These tasks are the purpose of this essay."